• Both Gold futures and the market's Cash Index have rocketed through the $4,000 level this week. 

• Buying continues to come from central banks and investors as a safe-haven position against the intentional increase in global economic and political uncertainty. 

• Given its accelerating ride, along the lines of a Fibonacci sequence, the Cash Index is expected to take out $5,000 later this month. 

When I first fired up the quote screen pre-dawn Tuesday, the US dollar index was again showing a modest gain, but this time around the clock December gold was quietly lower. I then got busy working on a couple long-term studies, knowing I had time before getting to work on Morning Commentary. Turning my attention back to the task at hand, I ran the traps of the commodity complex again and sure enough, gold was back in the green. A couple things immediately came to mind: First, the joke I like to say about a market being harder to hold down than convenience store sushi and second, my Market Rule #4A, a market that can’t go down won’t go down. I would be remiss if I didn’t report the December gold futures contract (GCZ25) did indeed breach $4,000 (per troy ounce) overnight, hitting an early high of $4,000.10. (Dec gold extended its rally to $4.061.20 Tuesday night through Wednesday morning.) How high can the market go? It’s impossible to say given the certain uncertainty that is the hallmark of the global political and economic situation created by…well, you know. 

Those of you following along with my monthly analysis for long-term investment positions know I track the Cash Gold Index (GCY00), taking contract rolls and low volume futures contracts (e.g. October, November) out of the picture. In my latest round of Monthly Analysis, the position was unchanged with the Index still in a major (long-term) uptrend, one resembling a runaway train showing no sign of stopping. And as I mentioned to my friends at Kitco News a couple weeks ago, I’ve found it better for my (financial) health to NOT step in front of a train with no brakes. It’s much better to go along for the ride. Until it isn’t. But we’ll cross that bridge when we get there. 

This morning, I want to focus on a different aspect of the market given futures poked above the $4,000 level. As of this writing, the Index has a high of $4,038.81, up $180 for the month. With the index also blowing through $4,000 during October (2025), it’s track record of climbing the $1,000 ladder looks like this:

• From the dawn of time through February 2008 the Index was between $0 and $1,000
• The Index inched above $1,000 during March 2008, hitting a high of $1,032.80 before closing the month at $916.95, down $57.36 (5.9%) for the month
• It then took until August 2020, a total of 150 months, for the Index to move above $2,000. Again the Index fell back to close out the month, settling at $1,967.29, down $7.39 (0.4%) from July 2020.
• The climb then accelerated as the Index took out $3,000 during March 2025, covering the $1,000 space in 55 months. This time, though, the Index held near its monthly high of $3,124.93, closing at $3,123.96, up $265.48 (9.3%) for the month.
• And now it’s October 2025, only 7 months further down the road, and the Index is above $4,000, driven higher by continued buying from central banks around the world and global investors as a safe-haven against all the political and economic certain uncertainty being intentionally created.

Given all this, how soon until the Index tests the $5,000 level? Let’s have some fun with numbers, Fibonacci style: 

• Again, the move from $1,000 to $2,000 took 150 months. Using the Horseshoe Proximity (Close is close enough), this is in line with the Fibonacci number 144.
• With the extension to $3,000 taking 55 months. Note 55 is also a Fibonacci, the one just beyond 89 in the sequence (…55, 89, 144…)
• Followed by only 7 months (probably) to reach $4,000. Again, close enough to the Fibonacci number 8, though this time skipping 3 in the sequence (13, 21, 34). If the Index waits until November to take out $4,000, albeit unlikely, then it would be the Fibonacci sequence number 8.
• Looking ahead, the Index has skipped 1 number in its sequence (89 months) then 3 (13, 21, 34), meaning a breach of the next $1,000 level could skip the next 5 sequence numbers (5, 3, 2, 1, 1) putting the target for $5,000 later this month.