The information and opinions expressed below are based on my analysis of price behavior and chart activity

Tuesday, July 15, 2025

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October Lean Hogs (Daily) 

Today, October Lean Hogs closed at 87.475, down 0.20 from yesterday’s settlement.  The short-term moving averages on this chart, the 5- and 10-day, are in a bearish pattern, having crossed that way on June 30^th.  Those averages are blue/red and are at 90.370 and 91.537, respectively.   The 50-day average (green) is also above the market at 90.205 and may offer some overhead resistance.  Today’s low of 86.02 was just above the 100-day average (grey, 85.986) and the 200-day (purple) is near 84.092.  I do like the fact that the market closed well off of the daily lows, and have successfully tested (and held) the February highs of 86.975.  As bearish as the Hog trade has been recently, I think that’s a bullish or supportive sign.  When I look back over this chart, nearly every time that I see a bar shaped liked today’s bar, a hammer, it results in higher prices to follow.  Sometimes the rally is only for a day, sometimes it’s for weeks.  Only time will tell how this one works out.  Stochastics (bottom sub-graph) are still in oversold territory, but did hook higher with today’s trade, which may also signal a recovery.  The stochastic readings from yesterday were about as “oversold’ as you can get, certainly the lowest level on this chart.  There is an overhead gap on the chart, left from June 26-27, at 94.800.  That may be a good upside target from here.  Aggressive and well-margined traders may do well to establish long futures positions at these levels, with a target at that gap.  From today’s close, that’s a move of 7.325, or a potential gain of $2,930 per contract, before your commission/fees.  I think your risk might be somewhere near the 100-day moving average (85.975) or 1.50 lower from today’s close, which equates to a potential $600 loss, before your commissions/fees. 

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Every morning, at about 8 AM CST, I post a short video highlighting where I see opportunities in the futures markets.  You can view my most recent video here   

October Lean Hogs (Weekly)

So far this week, the October Lean Hog contract is down some 3.175, or -3.5%, settling today at 87.475.  If it stays like this throughout the week, it will mark 4 consecutive weeks of price declines.  Prices have retraced over the past few weeks and this week they’ve pushed down to test the February high of 86.975.  The Fibonacci retracement that’s drawn on the chart above indicates that price is currently slightly below the 38% level, which is at 87.775.  The 50% mark is near 84.925, but has not yet been tested. According to Barchart’s Seasonal Data for the October contract, prices tend to rally a bit in July. However, when I looked at the data, I noticed that the past 5 years have seen an average gain of 9.11 in July, followed by a 1.409 average gain in August. I don’t know if that pattern will hold true in 2025, but arguably, a lot has changed in many markets over the past 5 years (covid, wars, inflation, etc.) and I don’t think the current environment is reflective of conditions of 10 years (or more) back.  Their seasonal data indicates that we’re down 2.700, but my monthly chart shows a decline of 4.925 for the October contract at today’s close. The market is trading below the 5- and 10-week moving averages (blue/red, 92.175 and 90.958, respectively) but they are still technically in a “bullish” configuration.  The 50-week (green) is well below the market price at 83.135.  Stochastics (bottom sub-graph) are pointing lower still, as the market is still “correcting” the overbought conditions that dominated May and June.  We’ve not yet seen an “oversold” reading, at least since the last week in March, but I’m not sure we need to see that for the market to rally.  The rally from the April low lasted some 12 weeks and the recent sell-off has lasted for 4 weeks now.  Sometimes it’s a good idea to buy things when they’re “on sale”, and to my eye, this may be one of those times. 

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Every morning, at about 8 AM CST, I post a short video highlighting where I see opportunities in the futures markets.  You can view my most recent video here   

Jefferson Fosse  Walsh Trading

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