May saw above-normal rainfall in the South and East Coast, with total drought coverage for the whole U.S. decreasing from ~37% to 31%. Parts of Illinois, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nebraska, and Minnesota were abnormally dry in May. Drought is likely to persist in Northern Illinois, Southern Wisconsin, and most of Nebraska in June. Forecasts for June favor drier weather across the country, with temperatures leaning above normal for major soybean-growing areas. The South is expected see above-normal rainfall in the coming weeks, along with below-normal temperatures. The wetness down south could shift some corn acreage to soybeans. President Trump is expected to speak with China’s Xi this week; any positive trade deal developments could help the grains. A soybean rally in the near term would be an opportunity to get hedged. 

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As of June 1, 84% of the U.S. soybean crop had been planted, with 63% emerged across the 18 growing states. Soybean conditions are at 67% good/excellent, compared to the five-year average of 68%.

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On Monday, AgRural raised its forecast for Brazil’s 2024/25 harvested crop by 1.3 million metric tons (mmt) to 169 mmt, despite flooding in some regions and drought in the southern states. Brazil’s record production was in 2022/23 at 162 mmt. Argentina is finishing up harvest. The Buenos Aires and Rosario stock exchanges estimate Argentina’s soybean crop at 49 mmt. 

Corn Trade Idea: 

With expected hot and dry weather, potential lower acreage, and possible trade deal news, look for a move above the February high at 4.82. Buy the September 2025 4.40/4.70 call spread for 7.375¢ or $368.75 plus trade costs and fees. If corn is higher than 4.70 at expiration, profit 22.625¢ or $1,131 per contract.

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Hans Schmit, Walsh Trading

Direct 312-765-7311 Toll Free 800-993-5449

hschmit@walshtrading.com   www.walshtrading.com

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