Nvidia’s (NVDA) fiscal first-quarter report will land after today’s market close, and Piper Sandler believes that the numbers will mark “largely the last wave of negative news” for the company. Analyst Harsh Kumar thinks a one-time inventory charge tied to China-related H20 restrictions and a dip in its July quarter guidance will lead to the “negative news.” In an earlier note, the analyst warned that the worst-case scenario could take NVDA stock down to $77.

The quarter could indeed disappoint and spark a quick selloff, but the results could also surprise to the upside and extend the current rally. Or, we could get a mixed print that keeps the stock at the $120-$140 level.

Why Piper Sandler Sees a Bad Quarter on the Horizon

Piper Sandler expects Nvidia to fall a little short of the $43 billion consensus revenue estimate because the United States blocked roughly $5.5 billion worth of H20 AI‑accelerator inventory earmarked for China. If the company books most of that charge now, the headline numbers could look ugly, and the guidance for the July quarter could slide to the low $40 billion range. Such a hit would flush out the bad news in one shot while hyperscaler spending, sovereign‑AI deals, and a re‑spun China‑compliant chip ramp up in the second half.

In a separate note, Morgan Stanley called past consensus estimates “stale” and warns of downside risk if management keeps its cards close. Add in renewed tariffs, fragile cloud budgets, and lingering fears that AI spending could pause, and the stage is set for a noisy print.

Still, Piper Sandler kept an “Overweight” rating and a $150 price target, which implies roughly 10% upside from recent levels. The firm’s conviction rests on long‑term capital‑expenditure plans that remain enormous. In that sense, Nvidia continues to look like the best bet for AI exposure.

What Could Go Right or Wrong

Bulls think Nvidia has trounced estimates in 10 straight quarters and could make it 11. Street forecasts now embed a margin haircut that might prove too severe if the China charge is smaller than feared or if sovereign‑AI demand accelerates faster than the bears assume. Wedbush, Oppenheimer, and 39 of 44 analysts still call the stock a “Buy.”

Even a flawless print may not rescue sentiment if management hints at a pause in capital spending during the back half of 2025. Piper Sandler itself says that a worst‑case slowdown could clip 6.45% of Nvidia’s annual data‑center revenue, equal to about $9.8 billion and $0.40 a share in earnings. Moreover, China’s revised chip rules may keep new export licenses in limbo until late summer, which would delay any upside from the re‑spun products.

Should Investors Buy Nvidia Stock Now?

The firm’s “last wave” framing might prove correct if: 1) the China charge is largely behind the company; 2) July guidance stabilizes near $45 billion, and 3) hyperscaler budgets keep rising. That would reignite momentum and could send the stock back toward its March highs.

If management posts a clean beat‑and‑raise, you can chase shares with conviction. If the outlook disappoints, you will get a better entry later. Either way, NVDA is a solid long-term stock to buy and hold.

The mean price target now is at $167.

However, I’d wait for the earnings call first. The recent rally has priced in a lot of good news.