Weather is the backbone of the U.S. corn market, dictating success or failure during the planting and growing season. From April to July, corn is sown and begins its critical growth phases, with nearly 90 million acres planted annually, according to USDA data. Too much rain in the Midwest, where 80% of U.S. corn is grown, can delay planting or drown young crops, slashing yields. Like the 2012 event that cut production by 13%, drought can stunt growth and spike prices. Temperature swings also matter—corn needs consistent warmth, ideally 75-85°F, to thrive. A single heatwave or early frost can disrupt pollination or kernel development, directly impacting supply. Farmers and traders know this, watching forecasts like hawks, because a shift in weather patterns can turn a bumper crop into a bust overnight. How much control do we have when nature holds the cards?

The December corn futures contract, the benchmark for new crop prices, is a rollercoaster tied to these weather patterns. It reflects expectations for harvest supply, with prices often swinging 10-20% in a month based on weather reports, as seen in historical December corn futures charts. A June drought forecast can send futures soaring as traders bet on lower yields. Conversely, ideal conditions can tank prices, like in 2014 when a wet spring turned into a mild summer, leading to a record 14.2 billion bushel harvest and a price drop to $3.50 per bushel. Weather reports, especially from the NOAA or private forecasters, can spark volatility at any moment, sometimes hourly, as traders react to new data. This isn’t just numbers on a screen; it’s a market grappling with uncertainty. How do you plan for a future when a single storm can rewrite it?

Producers face this chaos head-on and must hedge to survive. After planting, they’re exposed to seasonal price drops as harvest nears, especially if the weather favors a big crop. Farmers can lock prices early using futures or options contracts, shielding against a seasonal price decline. For example, in 2024, farmers who hedged using the December contract near $5 per bushel avoided losses when prices fell to $3.85 by harvest. Options like puts or calls let them bet on price movements while limiting risk. Without hedging, a farmer’s profit can vanish if a perfect growing season floods the market with corn, driving prices down. The challenge is timing—hedge too early, and you miss potential gains; too late, and you’re exposed. Every producer must ask: Is my livelihood worth gambling on a cloudless sky?

2025 looks no different than past years, with unpredictable weather and prices by the harvest season. Let’s review a few events and patterns that may assist hedgers and speculators in their decisions to place trades in the upcoming corn market growing season. 

Brazil’s Safrinha (Second Corn Crop) of 2025 

As of mid-May, Brazil’s second corn crop, or Safrinha, is shaping up to be a record-breaker, with estimates from Agroconsult and crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier projecting 99.8 to 129 million metric tons, a 2.5% increase from earlier forecasts. Recent rains have boosted prospects, especially in key regions like Mato Grosso, but challenges remain. Delayed soybean harvests earlier this year pushed back corn planting, potentially exposing crops to drier conditions later in the season. A Brazilian corn producer, João Silva from Paraná, says, “The rains came at the right time, but we’re still watching for dry spells in June.” Weather remains the wildcard, with any shift capable of tightening or expanding supply. Producers in Brazil face the same issue as U.S. producers: the weather wildcard. 

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) report

The May WASDE report projects U.S. corn planted acres at 95.3 million, a 5% increase from 2024, with harvested acres at 87.4 million and a trend-line yield of 181 bushels per acre, forecasting a record 15.8 billion bushel crop. This could be bearish for corn prices, as the higher acreage and robust supply outlook signal potential oversupply, especially if weather conditions remain favorable, potentially pushing December futures lower, as seen in past high-yield years like 2014 when prices dropped to $3.18 per bushel. However, bullish factors could emerge if weather disrupts planting or growing, like the 2012 drought that cut yields by 13%, or if global demand, particularly from China, surges unexpectedly, tightening stocks. Regardless of the acres planted, in the end, the yield counts when it comes to grain production. There have been numerous years where planting acreage was increased, and a severe weather pattern reduced the yield, resulting in higher prices.  

The Disaggregated Commitment of Traders (COT) report 

The latest Disaggregated Commitments of Traders report, released May 20, 2025, shows managed money traders have shifted to a net short position in corn futures, holding approximately 279,000 contracts short, a swing from their long position of 428,000 contracts in February, according to CFTC data. This move to net short typically signals bearish sentiment, as these traders bet on falling prices, often driven by expectations of ample supply or favorable weather, like the robust 2025 U.S. crop forecast of 15.8 billion bushels. Managed money traders are well aware of the seasonal selling pattern, where corn prices often dip post-planting in May and June due to reduced demand and harvest expectations, as seen in historical December corn futures chart trends. Compared to mid-May 2024, when managed money held a net short position of about 71,000 contracts, this year’s net short position, 103,000, is larger, suggesting a stronger bearish conviction, possibly due to the higher acreage reported in the May WASDE. 

Source: CME Group Exchange 

Managed money held 16.5% of the short open interest positions a year ago and this year, 13%. Interestingly, the number of managed money traders holding short positions last year was 84; this year, only 67 are. Could this mean approximately 17 more bullish traders are left to join the other bearish traders?   

Source: Barchart 

The table shows that managed money has aggressively added new short positions for the last six weeks. To the point that they went net short the week of May 13. 

Seasonal pattern 

Seasonal patterns in corn futures offer traders a framework to spot opportunities by leveraging historical price trends tied to predictable planting, pollination, and harvest cycles. For instance, prices often peak in spring due to planting risks and dip in fall with harvest supply, as seen in Moore Research Center, Inc. (MRCI) research. Traders can capitalize on recurring market behavior by aligning trades with these patterns, such as shorting in late summer. But patterns aren’t foolproof—weather or demand shocks can disrupt them, so the real edge comes from combining seasonal insights with current data like WASDE, crop production, and export reports. Combined with a proven trading strategy to manage risk. 

Source: MRCI 

MRCI researched the upcoming seasonal short in the corn market, and a seasonal pattern over the past 15 years revealed that corn had closed lower on approximately June 29 than on about June 09, 13 of those years, with an 87% occurrence rate. Managed Money is aware of this seasonal pattern and has positioned itself to capitalize on the downside. 

Source: MRCI 

Digging deeper into the research stats, the average net profit has been 18’0 cents or $915 using the standard size future contract. During two of these 15 years, the market did not have a daily closing drawdown.

However, the most interesting statistic is that for the past 9 years, the seasonal pattern has been profitable. There are no guarantees of future success, but 9 years is a decent track record. 

Assets to participate in the corn market trade 

Traders can tap into the corn market using several products.

• Corn futures, like the standard size December contract, allow direct bets on price movements, with each contract covering 5,000 bushels (ZC). The mini-corn contract is 1,000 bushels (XN).
• Options, including puts and calls, offer flexibility to hedge or speculate with limited risk, letting traders play volatility without owning the underlying asset.
• Exchange-traded funds (ETFs), such as the Teucrium Corn Fund (CORN), provide exposure without futures accounts, tracking corn prices indirectly. 

Each product carries distinct risks and costs, so traders must ask: Which tool fits their strategy and stomach for risk?

In closing….     

The U.S. corn market is a high-stakes game where weather calls the shots, and traders who grasp seasonal patterns hold the key to unlocking profits. With 95.3 million acres planted, per the May WASDE, and Brazil’s Safrinha crop eyeing a record 99.8-129 million metric tons, supply looks heavy, pushing managed money to a net short position of 103,000 contracts, a sharp jump from last year’s 71,000, signaling bearish bets on a price drop by harvest. Historical data from MRCI shows corn prices typically slide from June 9 to June 29 in 13 of the last 15 years, with a 9-year profitable streak for short trades averaging $915 per contract. Yet, weather remains the wildcard—a drought like 2012’s 13% yield cut or unexpected demand from China could flip the script, sending prices soaring. Are you ready to study the charts, track the forecasts, and test your nerve against nature’s unpredictability?

Here’s the challenge: the seasonal short trade in corn futures is staring you in the face, backed by an 87% success rate over 15 years, but it’s not a sure thing. You could trade corn futures (5,000 bushels), mini-contracts (1,000 bushels), options to limit risk, or even the Teucrium Corn Fund (CORN) for simpler exposure. The COT report shows managed money piling into shorts. Weather reports could spark 10-20% price swings in a month, as seen in past growing seasons, and Brazil’s crop hinges on June rains. Study the data—WASDE, NOAA, MRCI—and decide: will you ride the seasonal wave or sit out while others bet on the harvest dip? The clock’s ticking; what’s your move?