With a market cap of $24.3 billion, Smurfit Westrock Plc (SW) is a leading global provider of paper-based packaging solutions, formed through the merger of WestRock and Smurfit Kappa. It operates in 40 countries, producing containerboard, corrugated and consumer packaging, recycled paper products, and packaging machinery, with major markets in food and beverage, e-commerce, retail, and industrial sectors.

Shares of the Dublin, Ireland-based company have underperformed the broader market on a YTD basis. SW has declined 13.5% over this time frame, while the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has gained marginally. 

Looking closer, the paper and packaging company has also lagged behind the Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund's (XLB) 1.4% rise on a YTD basis.

Despite reporting better-than-expected Q1 2025 EPS of $0.73, Smurfit Westrock shares fell 3.7% on May 1 due to revenue of $7.7 billion missing forecasts. The management flagged ongoing weakness in U.S. order books during March and early April, along with broader customer nervousness tied to tariffs. Additionally, while full-year earnings are forecast to rise 6%-11% to $5 billion - $5.2 billion, the company expects $100 million in economic downtime costs in Q2.

For the current fiscal year, ending in December 2025, analysts expect SW's EPS to grow 32.2% year-over-year to $2.75. The company's earnings surprise history is mixed. It beat the consensus estimates in one of the last four quarters while missing on three other occasions. 

Among the 14 analysts covering the stock, the consensus rating is a “Strong Buy.” That’s based on nine “Strong Buy” ratings, two “Moderate Buys,” and three “Holds.”

On May 13, Barclays lowered its price target on Smurfit Westrock to $64 but maintained an “Overweight” rating.

As of writing, SW is trading below the mean price target of $55.48. The Street-high price target of $68 implies a potential upside of 45.9% from the current price levels.