Walmart (WMT) will announce its first quarter earnings results for fiscal 2026 on May 15. While WMT stock came under pressure following soft guidance, it has still managed to post gains so far in 2025. Analysts, too, remain upbeat about Walmart’s prospects heading into this earnings report.

Notably, Walmart could continue to expand its top and bottom lines. However, Q1 comparisons to last year are tough due to factors like the leap year effect, which will remain a 1% drag on sales growth. Additionally, the timing of Easter, which shifted sales into the second quarter, especially in the company’s Walmex operations, will further impact Q1 growth rate.

Nonetheless, Walmart has shown resilience and gained market share over the past several quarters, driven by its effective value pricing strategy, large scale, efficient supply chain management, and its focus on revenue diversification. These factors position Walmart well to navigate economic uncertainties and enhance shareholder value.

With the ongoing momentum in Walmart’s business, let’s look at analysts’ Q1 earnings forecast.

Walmart: Q1 Expectations

As Walmart prepares to release its first-quarter results, expectations remain positive despite a few near-term challenges. The retail giant anticipates its consolidated net sales will grow by 3% to 4% in constant currency. However, this projection factors in some headwinds, notably a roughly 100-basis-point drag from the leap year comparison and a timing shift of Easter sales into the second quarter, particularly affecting its Walmex business in Mexico.

Despite these temporary effects, Walmart’s core strengths remain intact. Its ability to offer value pricing, a broad product assortment, and increasing levels of convenience continues to attract shoppers, driving both transaction counts and unit volumes across its markets. The company’s e-commerce operations will benefit from fast delivery and an expansive online selection. Notably, the profitability of Walmart's U.S. e-commerce business has been steadily improving, boosting revenue and earnings.

Walmart’s efforts to diversify through newer digital ventures are beginning to pay off. Over the past year, global advertising revenue surged by 27%, reaching $4.4 billion, while the U.S. Marketplace saw impressive 37% growth. Nearly 45% of marketplace orders are now being fulfilled through Walmart Fulfillment Services, reflecting a growing ecosystem that supports long-term growth.

Membership income is another key driver for Walmart’s top line. In the U.S., Sam’s Club continues to grow its member base, with an increasing share of high-value Plus memberships. Similarly, Walmart+ membership momentum remains strong. Internationally, Sam’s Club China is contributing to growth with new club openings, further boosting membership income and recurring revenue streams.

Walmart has a solid track record of outperforming Wall Street expectations, exceeding earnings forecasts for four consecutive quarters. In its last report, the company beat estimates by 1.54%. For the upcoming quarter, Walmart has provided earnings guidance in the narrow range of $0.57 to $0.58 per share. Analysts’ consensus estimate is in line with this outlook. They are projecting earnings of $0.57 per share, representing a 5% decline from the $0.60 reported in the same period last year.

Notably, the retailer is growing its profit faster than its sales, driven by the scaling of higher-margin businesses such as membership programs, online marketplace, and advertising. These new revenue streams enhance profitability and provide the company with resources to reinvest in its core retail business while gradually expanding operating margins.

Still, the recent acquisition of Vizio, coupled with the leap year effect, is expected to result in a drag on operating income. This could weigh on the company’s bottom line in the near term.

Conclusion

In summary, while Walmart’s first-quarter results might reflect some short-term noise, the company’s long-term outlook remains compelling. Its dominant U.S. business, improving e-commerce economics, expansion into high-margin digital ventures, and growing membership income position Walmart well to continue delivering shareholder value.

Given these factors, Wall Street analysts maintain a “Strong Buy” rating on WMT stock ahead of its Q1 earnings report. Walmart remains an attractive option for investors looking for a stable, growth-oriented retail play.