AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Cattle mixed for Veterans Day

Live cattle futures are mixed so far, with Dec futures dropping 20 cents. Feeder cattle futures are higher, with Jan futures seeing a $1 increase. Nebraska and Kansas each sold 4,500 head of cattle for the week ending 11/08, KS ranged from $114 to $115, while Nebraska cattle sold from $114-$116, with dressed going for $181-$182. The 11/07 CME Feeder Cattle index was down 25 cents to $145.84. CFTC reported that as of Tuesday, managed money was net long for live cattle futures by the largest amount since May. They were also net long feeder cattle futures (by 91 contracts), the first time managed money traders had been bullish as a group since April. The WASDE indicated that US 4th quarter beef production would be 88 million lbs higher than October’s projection, forecasted to bring the yearly production to 27,036 million lbs (about 1% above last year). Wholesale boxed beef prices weren’t updated today, as the USDA is closed for Veterans Day. Choice boxes were $239.12, and select boxes were $213.26 at Friday’s close. Last week’s total estimated FI cattle slaughter was 651,000 head, through Saturday.

DEC 19 Cattle are at $119.050, down $0.200,

FEB 19 Cattle are at $124.925, down $0.100,

APR 20 Cattle are at $126.450, up $0.350,

NOV 19 Feeder Cattle are at $147.325, up $0.325

JAN 19 Feeder Cattle are at $146.875, up $1.000

MAR 19 Feeder Cattle are at $146.350, up $0.850

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cattle Futures Supported by $115-117 Cash Cattle

Live cattle futures were 5 to 32 higher on Friday, with June the firmest. The weekly change was modest at +22 1/2 cents. Nov feeder cattle dropped $2.15 over the week, with nearby futures closing Friday with gains of 10 to 22 cents. The 11/06 CME Feeder Cattle index was down 17 cents to $146.09. The WASDE indicated that US 4th quarter beef production would be 88 million lbs higher than October’s projection, forecasted to bring the yearly production to 27,036 million lbs (about 1% above last year). Wholesale boxed beef prices continue to increase. Choice boxes are up another $0.83 to $239.12, and select boxes gained $0.24 on Friday to close at $213.26. Cash cattle trades reported to the USDA were at $115 in TX, $114 for KS, and as high as $117 for the WCB on Friday. Nebraska also saw some Friday dressed sales of $181. CFTC reported that as of Tuesday, managed money was net long for live cattle futures by the largest amount since May. They were also net long feeder cattle futures (by 91 contracts), the first time managed money traders had been bullish as a group since April. The USDA estimated weekly cattle slaughter was 651,000 head.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Managed Money Bought Into Cattle

Live cattle futures closed with gains of 27 to 35 cents for nearby contracts, pulling the weekly change up to 22 1/2 cents above last Friday. Nov feeder cattle dropped $2.15 over the week, with nearby futures closing Friday with gains of 10 to 22 cents. The WASDE indicated that US 4th quarter beef production is 88 million lbs higher than October’s projection, forecasted to bring the yearly production to 27,036 million lbs (about 1% above last year). Wholesale boxed beef prices continue to increase. Choice boxes are up another $0.83 to $239.12, and select boxes gained $0.24 to close at $213.26. The bonus online auction from FCE today sold 119 of the 1684 head offered, all from KS at $115 (55% choice grade); KS and TX feedlots passed on $113 bids. Cash trades reported to the USDA were at $115 in TX, $114 for KS, as much as $117 for the WCB, and 116$ in Nebraska. Nebraska also saw some Friday dressed cash sales of $181. The 11/06 CME Feeder Cattle index was down 17 cents to $146.09. CFTC reported that as of Tuesday, managed money was net long for live cattle futures by the largest amount since May. Feeder cattle futures were also net long (by 91 contracts), the first time managed money had been since April. The USDA estimated cattle slaughter WTD including Saturday, is 651,000 head.

DEC 19 Cattle closed at $119.300, up $0.300,

FEB 19 Cattle closed at $125.125, up $0.275,

APR 20 Cattle closed at $126.200, up $0.350,

NOV 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $145.425, up $0.225

JAN 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $145.875, up $0.100

MAR 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $145.500, unch,

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cattle Futures Up for Friday

Live cattle futures are up by 35 cents to $119.35 at midday. Nearby feeder cattle futures are mixed at midday. The WASDE indicated that US 4th quarter beef production is 88 million lbs higher than October’s projection, forecasted to bring the yearly production to 27,036 million lbs (about 1% above last year). So far the FEC online auction has 1684 head offered with 119 sold at $115 in KS. The 11/06 CME Feeder Cattle index was down 17 cents to $146.09. The weekly cattle slaughter under federal inspection for the week ending 10/26 was 640,269 head, at an average dressed weight of 826 lbs. The USDA estimated cattle slaughter WTD as of Thursday was 470,000 head.

DEC 19 Cattle are at $119.350, up $0.350,

FEB 19 Cattle are at $125.125, up $0.275,

APR 20 Cattle are at $126.100, up $0.250,

NOV 19 Feeder Cattle are at $146.875, up $0.100

JAN 19 Feeder Cattle are at $145.450, down $0.325

MAR 19 Feeder Cattle are at $145.150, down $0.350

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cattle Market Anticipates Higher Cash Trade

Live cattle futures were 17 to 32 cents higher after Thursday’s session. Nearby feeder cattle futures ended with $1.35 to $1.52 cent gains, save for Nov which lost 2 cents. The USDA’s weekly export sales report showed beef shipments of 15,833 MT. Japan and Taiwan were the leading destinations each with a 25.9% share. The accumulated exports for Beef are 672,502 MT, which is down 6.61%. The 11/05 CME Feeder Cattle index was up 2 cents to $146.26. Wholesale boxed beef prices higher again. Choice boxes are up another $1.15 to $238.29, and select boxes gained $1.49 to close at $213.02. The USDA has indicated a few dressed purchases @ $181- $182 in Nebraska but otherwise cash trade has been slow to develop. The USDA estimated cattle slaughter WTD is 470,000 head. The weekly cattle slaughter under federal inspection for the week ending 10/26 saw 640,269 head (0.83% above the same week last year) at an average dressed weight of 826 lbs. The Report showed the highest weekly cow slaughter since week 20 of 2013, and we are on pace to have the highest since that year for the full year.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com